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This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events.Įvent attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event.

Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts.Įven with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Division on Engineering and Physical SciencesĪs climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe.Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education.

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